Petit test
Guess first, no penalty. Revenue is $50M and the operating margin is 15%. You cut next year's growth assumption from 12% to 8%. How much does next year's operating profit drop?
An assumption is an input someone chose rather than measured: next year's growth, a margin, a churn rate (the share of customers who leave). AI can build a model (a spreadsheet that projects the numbers) in minutes and will fill every assumption with something that looks normal. Looking normal isn't the same as fitting this company this year.
So the assumptions are yours to choose and defend. Before you defend one, see how much it moves the answer:
Et si…
Change one assumption and see what it does to next year's operating profit.
Revenue this year
$50,000,000
Revenue growth next year
12%
Operating margin
15%
Next year's operating profit
Next year's operating profit: $8,400,000
Une estimation à partir de vos chiffres, pas une prévision.
If a small change flips the decision, that input needs the most evidence.