Guess first, no penalty. Before a 2025 trial, experienced developers forecast that AI would cut their task time by 24%. What did the measurement show?
In that randomized trial by METR, 16 experienced open-source developers worked on 246 tasks in mature projects, with AI allowed on some tasks and not others. They forecast AI would cut their time by 24%. Afterwards they estimated it had cut it by 20%. Measured, allowing AI increased completion time by 19%.
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