Kurzer Check
Guess first, no penalty. A budget owner, the manager responsible for a cost line, is $380,000 over. When should they first hear it?
Budget owners often hear your analysis as criticism. People forgive bad numbers. They don't forgive being embarrassed in front of their boss by a number you could have told them first.
So be direct about the number and generous about the person. State the cause as a fact, not as blame. Bring options before anyone has to ask. And send it before the monthly pack (the report that goes to senior managers), so the first conversation is private.
AI can draft the message in seconds. Deciding when to send it, and how it will land with this person, is your call.